September is coming to an end, but the heat isn’t going away as quickly as the calendar suggests. According to the two long-range bulletins published by the IPMA in September, the entire mainland is expected to see above-normal temperatures in the coming weeks. This trend is set to continue through October, November, and December—meaning these months will be warmer than the usual average for this time of year.
Up to 1 °C above normal (and slightly more in December)
According to the institute’s most recentseasonal forecast for October, November, and December, the temperature anomaly in mainland Portugal is expected to range between +0.5 °C and +1.0 °C in October and November and between +0.5 °C and +1.5 °C in December.
The strongest indication, however, is for the coming weeks. The IPMA’s monthly forecast bulletin, covering the period from September 21 to October 18, projects that temperatures will be above normal for all four weeks across virtually the entire country, with this week standing out: 3 to 5 °C above the weekly average along the coast, where Lisbon is located, and even higher in the northern and central inland regions. In the following weeks, the difference narrows but remains positive.
Warmer does not mean drier
It’s important not to confuse higher temperatures with a lack of rain. This week, precipitation is below normal across the country, but the seasonal forecast indicates , starting in October, a positive anomaly—that is, more rain than average —in the North, which will extend to the Center in November and December.
A drop in temperatures is already being felt this week
These forecasts look at weeks and months as a whole, but that doesn’t preclude day-to-day variations. Fall officially began this Wednesday, the 23rd, and the IPMA’s five-day forecast already shows Porto and Viana do Castelo with highs in the range of 22 to 25 °C and a chance of rain starting Sunday. In Lisbon, the drop in high temperatures will occur over the weekend and early next week, and rain is also a possibility. None of this contradicts the underlying trend: these are the normal fluctuations of a season that, overall, the IPMA forecasts will be above average. Since daily forecasts change every day, it’s best to check the figures on the institute’s website.
Where to enjoy the warm weather near Lisbon
With days like these, it’s still worth putting off packing away your swimsuit. Here are three suggestions, all valid until the end of the month:
The beaches along the Linha, from Caxias to Cascais
The four beaches in Oeiras (Caxias, Paço de Arcos, Santo Amaro, and Torre) are open for the swimming season until September 30, as are the beaches in Cascais, from Carcavelos to Guincho. Carcavelos, with its 1.25 km of sandy beach and surf schools, is the easiest to reach by train: get off at Carcavelos station and walk the rest of the way.
Across the river, the swimming season runs from June 1 to September 30. In other words, the entire coast is still in the swimming season. If you need help choosing, we’ve already highlighted ten of them in our guide.
For those who prefer to enjoy the heat without the sand, late afternoon remains the best time. Our rooftop guide, featuring more than 20 terraces, can help you decide where to watch the sunset. With nights getting cooler, be sure to bring a jacket for after sunset.
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