Now that the skies are darker, NASA has been able to observe that asteroid 2024 YR4 is actually further away from hitting planet Earth, as we had indicated here.
Although the figures don’t show absolute certainty, the calculations carried out on the nights of February 19 and 20 indicate that the impact has become very unlikely, dropping from 2.3% to 0.004%.
It should be remembered that the day before, February 18, the measurement showed an alarming 3.1% probability, the highest ever recorded by NASA for an object of this size.
In conclusion, with each passing night of observation, new and more data makes it almost certain that asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass close to the Earth, and there is also the – very remote – probability that it could hit the Moon, at 0.8%.