We shouldn’t be catastrophic, not least because there’s still no certainty that asteroid 2024 YR4 will actually hit the Earth. However, it should be known that the level of chance has risen from 1% to 2.3% in recent days, as more data about this potential impact becomes known.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, and since then it has generated a great deal of attention from scientists and planetary defense agencies, as well as some apprehension on the part of the inhabitants of our little blue corner.
It is estimated to have a diameter of between 40 and 100 meters and, although the risk of hitting the Earth is very low, the potential impact on December 22, 2032 has increased every time new calculations are made about its orbit: the latest probabilities have gone from 1% to 2.3%, thus placing it at Level 3 on the Turin Risk Scale, which classifies near-Earth objects, such as asteroids and comets, based on the risks of collision and destructive potential.
According to this table,Level 3 means:
Calculations suggest 1% probability of collision capable of destruction. The public needs to be warned if the collision is less than a decade away.”
NASA classifies this asteroid 2024 YR4 as a “city destroyer”, with the capacity for a severe local impact, even though there is a low probability of this happening.
Its speed of around 61,000 kilometers per hour also makes it a priority observation target for the world’s leading space agencies.
Countries where asteroid 2024 YR4 could fall
While it’s not very likely that it will hit our planet, asteroid 2024 YR4 already has a trajectory that allows us to assess and calculate some impact sites, and Portugal is outside these areas.
Scientists have already managed to map out a possible “risk corridor” or, as they also warn, the “death corridor”, which could range from as far away as South America to Africa, depending on the Earth’s rotation at the time of its potential arrival:
- South America: countries such as Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador will be among the risk areas;
- Africa: Ethiopia, Sudan and Nigeria could be within the corridor;
- Asia: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are also highlighted as possible impact zones;
- Oceans: the Eastern Pacific and Arabian Seas are also part of the forecasts.
What is being done?
All the entities responsible for “defending” the Earth from this type of threat are working intensively on new data, with new estimates on the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 expected in March and May, as a way of predicting scenarios and anticipating response measures.
The chances are very slim, of course, but if future calculations indicate an increase in risk, strategies such as deflection by kinetic impact or controlled explosions can be applied.
Although the movie “Armageddon” seems more real than ever, the same organizations say that there is no cause for alarm or panic.